The outbreak of a major conflict in the Middle East could trigger an energy shock that pushes oil prices above $100 a barrel, fuels inflation and results in higher interest rates for longer, the World Bank warned Thursday. The governments in Jerusalem and Tehran appear to have decided against escalation after exchanging direct strikes on each other's territory for the first time. Oil prices have pulled back nearly 4% from recent highs as investors have discounted the probability of a wider war in the Middle East. The World Bank, however, cautioned that the situation in the region remains uncertain. "The world is at a vulnerable moment: a major energy shock could undermine much of the progress in reducing inflation over the past two years," said World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill.

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Persons: Israel, Indermit Gill Organizations: World Bank, Bank Locations: Isfahan Refinery, Iran, Isfahan, Jerusalem, Tehran